Quantum One Step at a Time EP-01: Chasing Quantum Advantage
Quantum advantage is the milestone everyone in quantum computing is chasing. Alan Shimel and John Willis kick off Quantum One Step at a Time, a new Techstrong podcast every other week. Furthermore, they start at a basic level and build up, so no physics degree is required.
Why hybrid computing comes first
John believes the first real breakthroughs will be hybrid, not pure quantum. In addition, IBM recently split a 1,200 atom protein simulation across CPUs, GPUs and QPUs. Consequently, the near term story is about combining processors rather than replacing them.
Alan calls the challenge a timing chain problem, borrowed from high school auto shop. Meanwhile, quantum output is noisy and must be cleaned by FPGAs and GPUs. Therefore, systems engineering may matter as much as the qubits themselves.
What stands between us and quantum advantage
John explains that quantum advantage needs enough fault tolerant qubits that run long enough. Furthermore, some machines only hold a useful state for about 10 seconds today. As a result, error correction can need 100 physical qubits for each logical qubit.
He also stresses that quantum is not brute force. In addition, he compares a quantum algorithm to pushing a wave through a maze. Consequently, the math promises answers in minutes for problems that take classical machines thousands of years.
Follow the money
Vendors like IBM, IonQ and PsiQuantum point to roughly 2030 for quantum advantage. Meanwhile, automakers, aerospace firms and big pharma are testing batteries, wind tunnels and drug discovery. Therefore, Alan and John see a coming patent rush and a funding gap with China.
What comes next
John is finishing a book on the history of quantum computing. In addition, he urges CIOs to add some quantum talent to their roadmap now.
Explore more emerging tech coverage and the latest Techstrong TV interviews.
For more information please visit techstrong.tv